INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION: This blog is my effort to help improve the understanding of numbers, especially as used by the press and in research reported by the press. I hope journalists will find it useful to improving the quality and validity of what they write. The topics are chosen from items I encounter with depressing frequency, in which failure to understand what they are saying or reporting leads journalists to write material that may mislead the public and result in ill-advised policy decisions. Please understand that my comments do not reflect my opinions of the subject matter. I protest misleading information even when it supports my opinions.

Friday, September 7, 2012

CORRELATION vs CAUSALITY


This is a very widely recognized problem in science—to mistake a simple relationship for a causal relationship. Here’s a simple example: as a general matter tall adults tend to eat more food than short adults. Does that  mean that eating more will cause one to become taller?  We understand that that is silly, that height is fairly fixed in adults, and that it is tallness that results in eating more because tallness goes along with being larger and so needing more food. But all too often, we see such a relationship and assume it means that one thing causes the other without considering other possibilities. This post will contain a growing list—ultimately a long list—of examples.
See my blog post, Happiness and Having Children for one example.
Here are others

It is known that adults who were breast-fed as babies report somewhat greater happiness than those who were not breast fed. I suspect that most of us immediately see that statement as suggesting that breast feeding improves a child’s chances of happiness in adulthood.   But it is surely plausible that the causal relationship is that happy babies are more likely to be breast fed, and to become happy adults.

No comments:

Post a Comment